TORONTO, ON, May 2017- After a three-year period of acceleration, house price growth in Canada has started to slow. Policy interventions by the Department of Finance and by the British Columbia government have started to make themselves felt in the housing market. Overall, the imbalances present in the national housing market are no longer getting worse, but they are still a long way from returning to balance with income and demographic trends. Prices in Vancouver and Toronto are still seriously overvalued, while prices in the Prairie provinces have been atfor almost three years since the late-2014 decline in oil prices and are, in some cases, undervalued relative to median income and construction costs. Moody’s Analytics forecasts that the Brook eld RPS composite house price index will slow to 0.1% year-over-year growth by late 2018. In addition, there is still the upward trend in mortgage rates driven by the higher-interest rate environment over the next few years, as the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve normalize rates to precrisis levels from the past decade. Finally, the Ontario government announced their own transfer tax in April as part of the effort to put a brake on house price growth and overvaluation, and the likely effects of this tax are discussed in the report. Read the full report here. Watch Moody's Analytics Chief Economist, Mark Zandi's Bloomberg interview on the report.
About the Brookfield RPS – Moody’s Analytics House Price Forecasts The Brookfield RPS – Moody’s Analytics House Price Forecasts are based on fully specified regional econometric models that account for both housing supply-demand dynamics and long-term influences on house prices such as unemployment and changes in mortgage rates. Updated monthly and providing a 10-year forward-time horizon, the forecasts are available for the nation overall, its ten provinces and for 33 metropolitan areas, and cover three property style categories, comprising single-family detached, condominium apartments and aggregate, in a number of scenarios: a baseline house price scenario, reflecting the most likely outcome, and six alternative scenarios.
About Brookfield RPS: Brookfield RPS is a leading Canadian provider of outsourced appraisal management, mortgage-related services and residential real estate data and analytics to financial institutions, real estate professionals and consumers. The company’s expertise in network management and real estate valuation, together with its innovative technologies and services, has established Brookfield RPS as the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics. Brookfield RPS is a division of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (NYSE: BAM) (TSE: BAM.A). More information is available at www.brookfieldrps.com.
About Moody’s Analytics: Moody’s Analytics helps capital markets and risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. The company offers unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management. By providing leading-edge software, advisory services, and research, including the proprietary analysis of Moody’s Investors Service, Moody’s Analytics integrates and customizes its offerings to address specific business challenges. Moody’s Analytics is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO), which reported revenue of $3.5 billion in 2015, employs approximately 10,900 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 36 countries. Further information is available at www.moodysanalytics.com.
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