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Royal LePage: 2023 national home prices forecast to end year 1.0% below fou...

Royal LePage: 2023 national home prices forecast to end year 1.0% below fourth quarter of 2022

by Laura Forester | December 15, 2022

According to Royal LePage, the aggerate price of a home in Canada is set to decrease 1.0% year-over-year to $765,171 in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the median price of a single-family detached property and condominium projected to decrease 2.0% and increase 1.0% to $781,256 and $568,933, respectively.

Housing values are based on the Royal LePage National House Price Composite, produced through the use of its data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions.


Report Highlights  

  • Condominium prices expected to outperform single-family homes in all major markets except Edmonton and Winnipeg 
  • Greater regions of Toronto and Montreal forecast to see Q4 2023 aggregate price decline of 2.0% year-over-year 
  • Q4 2023 aggregate home price in Greater Vancouver projected to dip 1.0% year-over-year 
  • Despite declining affordability, heightened by rising interest rates, continued housing supply shortage acts as a floor on home price declines 


House prices in the first quarters of 2023 are expected to show year-over-year declines, with modest quarterly price growth in the second half of next year: 

  • Q1: 12.0% compared to the same quarter in 2022, reflecting a 2.4% decline over Q4 2022 
  • Q2: 7.5% lower year-over-year, and remain virtually flat on a quarterly basis 
  • Q3: 2.0% lower year-over-year, reflecting a 0.7% increase on a quarterly basis 
  • Q4: expected to end the year 1.0% below the same quarter in 2022, an increase of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter 


RLP Q4 2022 Forecast


“After nearly two years of record price appreciation, fueled by a steep climb in household savings, very low borrowing costs and an overwhelming desire for more space during the COVID-19 pandemic, the frenzied housing market overshot and the inevitable downward slide or market correction began, intensified by rapidly rising borrowing rates,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “In an era characterized by the unusual, this correction has not followed historical patterns. While the volume of homes trading hands has dropped steeply, home prices have held on, with relatively modest declines. We see this as a continuing trend.” 

Royal LePage notes that much focus has been directed at the negative impact of rising rates, and there has been far less discussion on factors supporting home prices. Some factors it notes are low supply, low unemployment and strong immigration.   

Full report here.