The January 2026 RPS House Price Index declined 2% year-over-year at the national level, marking a slower start to 2026. Although the January reading represents the largest annual decline in two and a half years, most urban centres outside of the Toronto and Vancouver regions are showing signs of stability, or, in some cases, even gaining momentum.
Alongside the national index, 13 major metropolitan areas were analyzed. Four markets recorded annual declines. The remainder were in growth territory, reinforcing persistent regional divergence in housing trends. In general, the most substantial price drops are occurring in Canada’s most expensive markets, while prices are still rising in more affordable metro areas.
Victoria shows sharper annual decline after quiet end of 2025
Victoria (-5%) remained one of four major metropolitan areas to record a year-over-year decline in January, alongside Toronto (-6%), Hamilton (-5%), and Vancouver (-4%). Victoria’s annual decrease intensified compared to the previous month, following what had been a relatively quiet end to 2025 for the western Canadian market. However, the lull is likely not a bellwether of price correction. Rather, near-term activity is expected to improve for Victoria as the year progresses, which could support modest price increases. However, these gains are expected to soften through 2027 and 2028 as slower population inflows and labour market challenges begin to reduce demand.
Smaller markets in the Prairies surge ahead
One trend that took root last year was the emergence of Regina and Winnipeg as leading contenders for price appreciation — and this has carried over through the New Year. Climbing prices in the historically quieter markets of Regina (+11%) and Winnipeg (+8%) can be mainly attributed to two factors: severe supply imbalances and real estate prices that — though indeed elevated — are still attainable for many local homebuyers. Elsewhere in the Prairies, Calgary (+2%) and Edmonton (+4%) are returning to levels more in line with historical norms after marathon year-over-year price growth beginning in 2023. Regina and Winnipeg are not burdened with the acute supply constraints that the smaller, frothier urban centres in the region are facing.
Quebec City starts 2025 on top
Quebec City (+14%) also began the year much like it ended 2025: on top. In January, it had the most exuberant annual price increase of all 13 major metro areas RPS analyzed. As has been the case throughout the past year, double-digit price growth is supported by resilient fundamentals. These include a supply shortage, population growth, and good job prospects. Add Quebec City’s relative affordability to the mix, and there is a recipe for continued price appreciation across this market. Although the labour market in Montreal (+9%) is not on such solid footing, low inventory levels and substantial population growth has resulted in surging home values.
Condo horizon remains cloudy
The national price of a condo (-5%) is primarily a function of ongoing price corrections in Toronto and, somewhat to a lesser extent, Vancouver. However, apartment prices in other markets, such as Calgary and Edmonton, are tumbling, too. Overall, the national decline in condo values slightly outpace those of row/townhouses (-4%), as well as semi-detached (-3%) properties.
Detached homes were almost unchanged from a year ago (-1%). Less exposure to the investor segment has helped insulate single-family home values from more substantial reductions. Canadians’ long-term propensity to own ground-oriented dwellings over apartments has also created a base level of demand.
About the RPS House Price Index (HPI)
The RPS House Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.
Long-Term Price Trends
The RPS House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.
The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.
The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period.
Market Momentum
A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.
The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.
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This article provides a summary of the key trends from the January 2026 RPS House Price Index. If you’d like the underlying data, sign up for the RPS HPI Public Release and receive the complimentary dataset each month, delivered directly to your inbox.
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Josh is a staff writer at RPS. He has been reporting on the national real estate market for 10 years, including for some of Canada’s largest newspapers and magazines.