In September 2026, the national RPS House Price Index, which is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country, declined by 3% on a year-over-year basis. The pace of depreciation has remained largely unchanged throughout the year following modest gains in 2025. Economic turmoil has continued to weigh on markets that may have otherwise shown some improvement. With no sign of abating, trade tensions have escalated in recent months, casting a long shadow on the housing market and overall economic outlook for the country.
Nonetheless, the Canadian housing market remains relatively resilient within this context of souring economic prospects. That is despite obvious weakness in the largest urban centres, where an oversupply of condo units exerts additional downward pressure on home values.
Home values up or flat in 7 out of 13 major metros in September
In September, home values in a small majority (seven) of the 13 metro areas that RPS analyzed alongside the national index were in growth territory, or flat. Declines were only marginal in Ottawa (-1%) and Halifax (-1%), and these markets are now more or less balanced. The strongest price movement last month occurred again in Quebec City (+10%), although it is worth noting that the pace of annual appreciation was at its lowest point in any month in more than two years. Sales volumes in Quebec City were down recently, but they are coming off of historic highs. The market remains chronically undersupplied, setting the stage for continued appreciation, albeit at a potentially slower clip.
Regina (+7%) and Montreal (+6%) trailed Quebec City. Growth is moderating in Montreal. A surge in active listings is easing some of the pressure. Housing starts are also edging higher, which should provide additional relief over the longer term. Conditions in Regina, meanwhile, strongly favour sellers, though the market is not on pace to surpass the record for sales it achieved in 2024 (and nearly repeated last year). A growing population and a housing market that ranks as the country’s most affordable are factors fueling demand in Saskatchewan’s capital.
Only four markets experienced substantial year-over-year declines in September: Hamilton (-7%), Toronto (-6%), Vancouver (-5%), and Victoria (-5%). These markets have diversified economies and are generally less exposed to the immediate effects of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. Hamilton’s Achilles’ heel is the steel industry. Manufacturing job losses are mounting with Stelco’s plans to lay off about 500 workers, but the city lays claim to one of the country’s most diversified local economies. The upshot in the cases of the major markets in southern Ontario and B.C. is that while uncertainty related to tariffs has undoubtedly hurt homebuyer sentiment, it is difficult to gauge exactly to what extent, if any, this has trimmed home values. Other factors, such as weak condo segments and affordability challenges, are taking a toll on these markets.
Conditions worsen for local markets with the highest exposure to tariffs
The picture is clearer — at least correlatively — in the markets that are the most vulnerable to stateside tariffs. Shortly after trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. began flaring up last year, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s U.S. Tariff Exposure Index identified 19 local markets that were vulnerable to the levies by varying degrees. In the month following the commencement of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, all 19 of these markets were in growth territory. As of September, home values were down or flat on a year-over-year basis in 14 of these markets.
The shift has been dramatic. For example, in Abbotsford, B.C. — a city of approximately 150,000 that exports a staggering $1.5 billion of goods to the U.S. annually — year-over-year price gains were approaching 10% at the onset of 2025. In September, values were down by 7%. A similarly striking transition has played out in Windsor, Ont., where the automotive industry is struggling. The Windsor Assembly Plant, the city’s single largest employer recently announced a temporary closure, underscoring the very real impacts of trade policy on the local economy.
Correlation is, of course, not causation. However, such a widespread swing in momentum across markets in several provinces is suggestive of a broader macro-economic trend. Many of these tariff-exposed towns and cities are far removed from the orbits of the Greater Toronto Area and the Lower Mainland — and many of the dynamics that have dragged down values in both regions.
Condo woes continue
By housing type, multi-family homes are the most sensitive to economic uncertainty. This is primarily due to the fact that the market segment has historically had a higher share of investors. With fewer investors active in Canada’s biggest multi-family markets, these properties experienced the largest year-over-year declines in values this September. Row/townhouse values dropped by 7%, while condo values fell by 6%. Both detached and semi-detached categories underwent smaller declines (-2% for each).
The sharper decline in multi-family housing nationally is representative not only of the condo corrections in B.C.’s Lower Mainland and southern Ontario but also softening in other markets. Namely, condo values in Calgary and Montreal are falling as sales activity reduces. Rather than collapsing, as in the case of Toronto and Vancouver, these markets are stabilizing. With better affordability in Calgary and Montreal, the baseline case for demand is stronger.
About the RPS House Price Index (HPI)
The RPS House Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.
Long-Term Price Trends
The RPS House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.
The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.
The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period.
Market Momentum
A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.
The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.
Access the RPS House Price Index Data
This article provides a summary of the key trends from the September 2026 RPS House Price Index. If you’d like the underlying data, sign up for the RPS HPI Public Release and receive the complimentary dataset each month, delivered directly to your inbox.
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Josh is a staff writer at RPS. He has been reporting on the national real estate market for 10 years, including for some of Canada’s largest newspapers and magazines.