The July 2025 RPS House Price Index recorded a 0.2% year-over-year decline at the national level, marking the first negative annual growth rate since August 2023. Alongside the national measure, the indices for 13 major metro areas were analyzed, providing a closer view of regional performance and highlighting widening differences, with some markets posting double-digit gains while others saw notable declines.
Quebec City and Winnipeg Lead National Gains
Regional results showed substantial variation. Quebec City (+13.1%) led all markets for annual growth, supported by limited housing supply and sustained demand. Local REALTORS report that homes in the region are often selling for 5% or more above asking price.
Winnipeg (+8.9%) ranked second, with its relative affordability drawing buyers from other provinces and putting pressure on supply. For the first time in over 20 years, more people moved to Manitoba from elsewhere in Canada than left it, according to Statistics Canada’s Q1 2025 data, a demographic shift that could be adding fuel to the market.
Toronto, Vancouver, and Hamilton See Continued Declines
Toronto (-4.3%) and Vancouver (-5.2%) both posted further year-over-year declines in July, with elevated condo inventory continuing to weigh on market trends. The condo segment of the HPI was down 10% in Toronto and 9% in Vancouver, the steepest drops for each city in at least two years.
Hamilton (-4.8%) also remained in negative territory. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce notes the city’s steel-dependent economy leaves it among the markets most exposed to U.S. tariff impacts, contributing to softer conditions.
About the RPS House Price Index (HPI)
The RPS House Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.
Long-Term Price Trends
The RPS House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.
The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.
The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period.
Market Momentum
A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.
The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.
Access the RPS House Price Index Data
This article provides a summary of the key trends from the July 2025 RPS House Price Index. If you’d like the underlying data, sign up for the RPS HPI Public Release and receive the complimentary dataset each month, delivered directly to your inbox.
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Josh is a staff writer at RPS. He has been reporting on the national real estate market for 10 years, including for some of Canada’s largest newspapers and magazines.