The Canadian housing market is undergoing a persistent period of stasis.
In previously hot markets in the prairies, balanced conditions are taking hold. Year-over-year prices are relatively flat in Calgary and Edmonton, whereas at the start of last year both were drum-tight markets. Meanwhile, cities in the Greater Toronto Area and B.C.’s Lower Mainland continued to be defined by the cooler characteristics that emerged following the pandemic boom.
However, there are notable exceptions elsewhere in the country, according to RPS Economist Ryan McLaughlin.
“Some of the most pronounced shifts in the Canadian housing market are playing out in less-talked-about secondary markets,” says McLaughlin. “Halifax and Quebec City are prime examples, although for very different reasons.”
The international student effect
In 2024, the federal government began dramatically reducing the number of international students it would allow into Canada. It was part of a wider effort to limit immigration in hopes of alleviating “some pressure in the housing market.” The move has possibly had unexpected consequences for certain secondary markets, particularly on the east coast.
Policymakers had anticipated that the smaller provinces would see study permit approvals drop by no more than 10% in response to the federal clampdown. In reality, Nova Scotia — which is often referred to as Canada’s University Capital — saw approvals plunge by approximately 65% in 2024, according to a report from the Office of the Auditor General of Canada.
A sharp drop in the number of international students in the Maritimes could have helped shift supply-demand fundamentals in Halifax and its environs. “We have a lot tighter restrictions on international students, so there’s a lot less demand for rental,” says Kari Norman, a senior economist at Desjardins. With a decreased need for student housing, some investors might have exited the market, creating more buyer-friendly conditions for end-user households.
It is difficult to gauge the full extent of current investor activity, but we know from existing data that a higher proportion of residences in the Maritimes are investor owned.
Some 31.5% of Nova Scotia’s residential properties were owned for investment purposes as of 2022, compared to 20.2% in Ontario and 23.3% in B.C., according to Statistics Canada’s Canadian Housing Statistics Program.
A significant shift in investor activity therefore has the potential to have an outsized effect on Maritime markets, including Halifax. “That could be part of what’s happening in Halifax and the east coast more broadly,” says Norman.
Home price momentum in Halifax appears to at least reflect such a shift. In April, Halifax home prices declined by 5% year-over-year, according to the RPS House Price Index.
Interprovincial migration from Ontario, which had soared during the pandemic and boosted Nova Scotia’s housing market, has also pulled back substantially, adds McLaughlin. “Remote work, a desire for more outdoor space during lockdowns, and affordability was likely drawing more households out east at the height of Covid-19,” he says. “Coinciding with return-to-office mandates and somewhat improving affordability in Ontario, that trend has been abating,” says McLaughlin.
In fact, between Q4 2021 and Q4 2025, the number of Ontarians relocating to Nova Scotia declined by about 50%, according to Statistics Canada.
Quebec rebuffs the national decline
Strong and sustained price gains in Quebec — and especially Quebec City — has been one of the biggest stories of the Canadian housing market over the past two years. As more markets enter negative territory, Quebec City continues to outperform.
As of April, Quebec home prices increased 12% annually, according to the RPS House Price Index. This runs counter to the national index price, which declined 4% year-over-year, weighted by falling values in B.C. and Ontario.
So what has been driving these outlying gains?
“What we’re seeing in Quebec City is a city that is very dynamic,” says Norman. “There’s a solid employment situation, and it’s still relatively affordable,” she continues.
Job losses in the wake of the trade war with the U.S. seem to have created economic hurdles in certain markets. In fact, home prices are down in 14 of the 19 Canadian housing markets that are most-exposed to U.S. tariffs.
Yet across much of Quebec, the labour market is defying expectations. “Montreal would certainly be an exception,” notes McLaughlin.
He points to the latest Labour Force Survey from Statistics Canada. Montreal’s unemployment rate was pegged at 7.7%, the highest level in a decade, excluding pandemic-related peaks.
Home prices in Montreal, which were up 8% year-over-year in April, are “supported by several structural factors,” says Charles Brant, director of market analysis at Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers.
These factors include a lack of supply, high construction costs that limit new development, and population growth. “Although slower immigration could gradually reduce household formation and ease pressure on housing demand, the effects are expected to remain gradual given the housing supply deficit accumulated over recent years,” he continues.
Historically, a preponderance of larger, family-sized rentals in Quebec City has helped maintain the affordability that is now attracting demand. “You can raise a family in a three-bedroom rental in Quebec City, whereas in Toronto and Vancouver, the availability of those units is much smaller relative to the total market and the vacancy rate is very, very tight,” says Norman.
In Toronto, households either compete for limited larger rentals, move outside the city, or purchase. “When you’re forced out of the rental market because what you need isn’t available, it’s going to push up ownership housing [costs],” Norman explains.
Josh is a staff writer at RPS. He has been reporting on the national real estate market for 10 years, including for some of Canada’s largest newspapers and magazines.